My 2011

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

December-2011 turned into its second half. This is the time for reflecting the year which we will pass into history just in the next few days time and building upon new hopes for 2012.

Like every years, the first year of the second decade of the 21st century, accommodated bitter and sweet events. It may be hard to draw a bold line to contrast sweet and bitter events, as they could be differently interpreted by people. There were, however, some events that there is a general consensus which overwhelmingly affected the function of the global system or moved human’s heart.

Nevertheless, in reality, bitter and sweet forces are interacting and applied to dynamic systems. The natural and social systems must be capable to balance them through an adaptable path if they wish to survive.  

In individual level, everyone experienced the impacts of these events. Some even forced further and got radical structural changes to transform the entire system with altering their lifestyle and resetting their mindsets.

My life was influenced by Japan’s tsunami, Fukushima nuclear disaster and Thailand’s floods. The former strained my emotions to its limit. My friends and family were directly exposed to the disasters. The latter tested both my physical and emotional capacity. Struggling for securing foods and drinking water, living in fear of flood reaches your place plus watching people’s lost, pushed me to limit.

The events, along with other personal experiences, force me to undertake an adaptation process which brought me a great life and mindset transformation. I got know myself and now feel free.

If you’re reviewing your 2011 to create hopes for 2012, I wonder, it would be useful to bring up some great words in this thinking process. They contributed in bringing off my life transformation. They may find your interest.       

}        Knowing is better than wondering (B. Franklin)

}        Never leave that till tomorrow (B. Franklin)

}        It is not the strongest of species that survive, nor the most intelligent, BUT the ones most responsive to changes (Ch. Darwin)

}        Changing paradigms is not easy. Too many have invested too much in the wrong models (J. Stiglitz)

}        If we are to survive, we must have ideas, visions, and courage. (A. Schlesinger)

}        Everything that matters in our intellectual and moral life begins with an individual confronting his own mind and conscience in a room by himself  (A. Schlesinger)

}        Do not watch, but see and listen. They open your mind and heart (the tale of Genji)

Have a wonderful year

Subjective priority setting process

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

One may describe, the policy analysis procedure involves a series of objectives and logical steps such as goal setting; based on world-view and cultural values, cost-benefit outcome (logic, abeit to some degree depends on analyst's perspective), compliance with the governed law both cultural bases and natural law and etc.

There is one element so-called "PRIORITY setting" that comes so often to fore that is influenced by SUBJECTIVITY. It may radically shift and influence the policy design and its implementation.
From different perspectives, priorities may be in different colours.

General notion says that dotmocracy is an effective technique to underplay the influence of SUBJECTIVITY. In its simplest form, one provides participants with one to three dots (usually stickers) and invite them to place a dot beside their top one to three options. It is a voting technique. Dotmocracy works well with large groups in situations when a quick ‘read’ of the group feelings are required and when participants are not very interested or able to engage in very rigorous, analytical ranking processes.

Like all existing techniques, dotmocracy has its limitations. It still accomodates, to some degree subjective priority setting processes. It is effectively implemented in situations when the personal or professional judgment opinions of participants are an acceptable decision-making standards.

Giving all a/m points, is there any way to get ride of this "SUBJECTIVITY"?

A brief on Confucianism and Critical Thinking

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Confucianism posits moral eductaion for nobles who will take office, is the critical point that determines the success of a government and progress of a state. It beilives that nobles who are educated, under this system, will feel a sense of responsibility to their society (Journal of Democracy 11, 2000)

This system believes the art of government and nobles are to correct people and it is fundamental in societies who influenced by Confucinism, "the optimum is what nobles say". The system believes the moral accountability notion maintains NOBLES from any wrong doing (Fukuyama)

Without any value judgment on Confuciosim, it could be said that this system keeps away people from participating in debates. Would it eventually cause to halt the growth as the notion of Critical Thinking would fade away (which is the main value of Freedom and progress)? Does this notion kill curiosity and would lead to the decay of a society?
One may say China, with adopting such a notion, could improve its society and got changes. Will it be sustainable?

Contrary to principle: Budget deficit reduction policy

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

For reducing budget deficits, governments face two policy choices, either reducing government spending such as health care or raising tax on rich. WHICH one is good?

There are many ways to judge the value of a policy target. To answer the above mentioned question we should answer to the essential questions. How can we distinguish between good and bad?

Utilitarian theory requires, which is one of the most dominant doctrines with stronghold in North America, a policy to maximize pleasures.

According to a utilitarian theory, it assumes that the rightness of an action depends entirely on the amount of pleasure it tends to produce and the amount of pain it tends to prevent. It describes the good not only as pleasure, but also as happiness, benefit, advantage. J. S. Mill particularly emphasizes the importance of pleasures. Thus the values of the consequences of an action are evaluated based on not only the quantity but also the quality of the action’s pleasure.

So if one accepts utilitarianism, its policy target must be set based on the greatest-happiness principle of majority as a standard of right and wrong. Hence, the Budget Deficit Reduction Policy should be judged as good if it improves the greatest happiness of the greatest number, by either increasing pleasure or decreasing pain.

The notion and motion that denies health care to the poor who outnumbers rich, is a BAD policy when it makes the majority unpleased.

By this standard: “should not deficit-reduction policy raise taxes on the very rich?” However one can sticks to only the collective cost-benefit numbers, so then the value judgment is not something it can justify at all on the basis of those numbers.

Value Judgment and Progress

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

What we discussed in my earlier post “progress” on October 23^rd 2011and in the social scientists group, briefly covered origins for the idea of progress and its implication for society development.  Similar lines of inquiry might be pursued through other sociological literature, with the result of showing case studies that attempt to explain society, and particularly social advance. What was missed, explicit definition for the significant and essential characteristic of human beings, for striving after the accomplishment of certain life-purposes (E. Kant).. Such terms as "struggle," "conflict," "survival," and "adaptation stand for legitimate and highly important concepts in social theory, but concepts nevertheless which can give us no clue to the true nature of human progress.  

 

The definition of progress does not imply continuous, uninterrupted advance along a smooth path, but rather the halting, infrequent lunges forward which the actual page of history discloses (B. Woods). It is possible to assume an attitude on the subject of human evolution and denying all significance to judgments of better or worse, passed on human life conditions in different ages. No matter which standards or codes picked, the concept of social valuations is universal, and, indeed inevitable. It is decidedly worth while that they should be founded, not on narrow interests or artificial conceptions of life, but on a survey of the largest horizon of truth about humanity which it is possible

In contrast to the prevailing original idea of gradual and continuous progress, the orthodox idea of cycles of change existed in the fabric of the philosophies of east and their perceptions of progress. It means regular succession of changes seen in the movements of perfect bodies the return of the seasons, the course of growth and decay in the animal and vegetable world, as well as by periods of degeneration and decline visible in the history of nation. This idea also could survive long and worked well in that part of the world. (Fukuyama)

In social level, progress is essentially an idea of value and teleological idea (Flint). It cannot, therefore, be reduced to a formulation in terms of mechanism. The theory of natural selection is essentially a theory of the mechanics of a process. Evolution in general is a process from homogeneous to heterogeneous (Spencer). In social level, the progress is path-determined (Arrow) and the process’s goal must be set and judged to be good, and involving both the process and the judgment.

However one may still argue that with separating the process from the value judgment, the element of subjectivity appears which it may misguide societies toward a sound direction. The counter argument is “Societies, whose values have survived over the course of history, can set a series of values which suit and serve their space and time (context) as they have done”. This standpoint may fall short when the value judgment is supposed to be taken in a collective global scale (globalization). The problem lies in reconciling a standard of human values, which is valid not because it corresponds to a social actuality, but to a social need with that other dominant conception. So remote the global society ideal of life may be!

A great deal of efforts has been made by social scientists to develop a universal framework to explain the conditions of human development, though this universal framework is inconsistent where the value judgments, ethics and priorities are at play. As Bury highlighted, progress itself, does not suggest its values as a doctrine. So in social level, there may not be a supreme object of action toward the union of human thoughts.

ASEAN: Now circumstances demand different focus

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Before an incident occurs and urges a change, ASEAN’s leaders now must get fundamental changes in attitudes toward regional cooperation and the importance of a security pack throughout the region.

The recent meeting of ASEAN has stressed again that the establishment of an East Asia community would be a common goal of member states in years ahead. As it was, the economic development topics dominated the summit’s agenda and again security aspects (non-traditional ones) have been missed. The ASEAN leaders must know that the economic and social growth will not be sustainable within an unstable region and when the supply chain of strategic commodities is at risk. The leaders must give increased attention and seriousness to the importance of energy and environment security, natural resource and water resource management, development and cooperation across the region for the benefits of sustainable development.

Despite substantial progress in economic cooperation, there is no sense of a security cooperation in ASEAN. The South China Sea disputes, between some of the ASEAN member states and China, may jeopardize the entire stability across the region and beyond. It includes disruption in energy flows (ship liners), development of natural resources and arm competitions across the region. It turns the existence economic cooperation into competition. Up to date, East Asian integration remains largely economic and market driven and never motivated by security issues. While expanding economic cooperation is certainly a positive development, an exclusive focus on the economic advantages of regional integration and forgetting the security aspects misleads the realization of a more comprehensive and enduring regional cooperation.

The absence of a common cultural and religious heritage, stark economic disparities, emerging confrontational nationalism, widespread domestic governance issues, past US opposition to stronger regional institutions, and both traditional and nontraditional security threats make it abundantly clear that the realization of an East Asia community will be no easy task. Faced with the need to overcome such monumental challenges, there is uncertainty among policymakers about how best to move forward. (Tanaka and Liff 2008)

Here it is. Long term stability requires, region-wide, a comprehensive non-traditional security pack which is rules-based rather than values-based approach. The non-traditional security pack should aim to address inter and intra regional issues through voluntary and coordinated actions, rather than allowing the most powerful governments in the region or out to govern and impose their interests.  Such a pack is the most practical way to deepen trust and long term bound and cooperation between states and gradually lay the groundwork for more substantive regional cooperation in the future. Given the current circumstances in the region, and in particular its vast diversity, a rules-based and process-oriented approach may be the only practical strategy to gradually transcend the potential risks and obstacles and further consolidate the peace, prosperity, and stability of ASEAN.

Non-traditional security, Energy and Environment for development: South-East Asia

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The security threat posed by a deteriorating environment and global climate change can no longer be considered as marginal to the traditional security discourse. Since the end of the Cold War, the security literature observes that rather than wars, states have become increasingly vulnerable to the risks of non-traditional security threats such as energy security, cross-border conflicts, pandemics and cyber security. Perhaps it is time to add environmental security to the list.

Environmental Security refers; on an article titled “Environmental Security: Concept and Measurement, written by Allenby Braden; to the intersection of environmental and national security considerations at a national policy level. He as one of security theorists believes that states and regional inter-state organisations should recognise and formally introduce environmental security as a factor in their security and economic policy frameworks. (We’ve observed in our Foreign Policy design in our research work)

Such a framework would consider, the impact of economic development on the interaction between the ecosystem and human security within and across borders. It would also be capable of analysing the interaction between energy security and environmental security and develop strategies that would promote sustainable development.

South East Asia has abundant renewable energy sources, notably geothermal energy, solar power, bio-fuel and hydropower. The region’s hydropower resources are particularly of the Mekong River Basin and its commission committee, comprising Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, was formed in 1995 to jointly manage the sustainable development of the Mekong River Basin Indeed, there have been numerous hydropower dam projects built and planned over the last decade. (Singapore International Energy Week 2011)

South East Asia is home to approximately 600 million people, out of which 19 percent live on less than US$1.25 a day (the Millennium Development Goals Report 2011) Inevitably absolute poverty has been remarkably reduced to half compare to the Ninetieths , for further poverty reduction, the economies of the region’s states must keep their expansion up. It is translated a steeply rising demand for energy. 

The pursuit for regional energy security and economic development does not have to be a zero sum game in relation to the environment. In fact, sustainable development can be achieved if environmental considerations are built into the core of each nation's socio-economic policies and security strategies.

In conclusion, the south east region’s energy needs will continue to increase as the region's economy expands further in the years ahead. It remains uncertain whether economic growth can be achieved without further jeopardising human security, the environment and the global climate even if the region continues to increase its use of renewable energy. Unless environmental security is factored into the region’s national security and economic paradigm, the region will continue to face an energy security-sustainable development conundrum.

The story of energy system transformation- IF’s

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The story of technology and its benefit has been long dominated in the popular mind and to a large extent in reality that technology can transform our lifestyle and solve our problems.  The second half of the 20^th century, technology advancements in health, agriculture, manufacturing, communication, transportation and urban development have appreciably improved the quality and standard of life.   

However human’s mastery of resources, environment and in sum the material world has rather slowly advanced and still young. Energy resources and the ways we extract and use them, are much the same as they were a generation ago.

Perhaps climate change and the fossil energy demands rise cause an energy system transformation. The transformation could boost by the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy generation technologies. We should not be fooled as the cost reduction is not the critical driver and the transformation is influenced and halted with two strong obstacles     

First, the existing fossilized energy system which is politically supported. Fossil fuel producers have both powerful political allies and a powerful propaganda machine that denigrates alternatives. Furthermore the sector with over two trillion dollar in annual sales is the largest on the planet. (CSEinfo Peter Hartley 2010) Thus economic policies that affect the sector have global consequences are manipulated by these interest group. Yet what the sector and its defenders demand is, of course, precisely that it be let off the hook for the damage fossil fuel causes.

Second there is a technical issue with the renewable energy system. Despite the promising cost reduction in the technology development process, currently the renewable energy technologies generate energy only for fifty percent of their operating times. So it requires backup and standby energy generation systems to parallel with renewables make energy available for the whole time. It is translated to excess costs for the entire energy systems. The backup plants need to be fully invested however they are idled when renewable plants run.

To have a transformed and clean energy generation system and complete our mastery of energy resources, we should brush away the IF’s and obstacles.

}        If the downward trend of cost reduction in renewable technology development and its backup system OR energy storage system continues (technology development)

}        If the availability factor of renewable resources increases during operation (technology development and system integration)

}        If we price coal-fired power right, taking into account the huge health and other costs it imposes (global governance and law)

}        If  political and financial class that is deeply invested in energy sector dominated by fossil fuels, does stop subsidising the extraction and use of fossil fuels (directly with taxpayers’ money and indirectly by letting the industry off the hook for environmental costs)

it’s likely that we would have clean air, enough affordable clean energy for all.

Environmental Issue through Realism lens - Policy

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Aljazeera news held a panel to discuss a controversial proposition:

 “Is it time to consider shifting efforts away from saving some of the world's most famous species?”

The program claims that in a recent survey of nearly six hundred scientists involved in wildlife protection, sixty percent agreed with the idea of shifting efforts away from species that are too difficult or too costly to preserve in the wild. 

If this proposition is converted into a policy, it would have both moral and environmental implications. Unsurprisingly opposition rejects the proposition and argues that it is absolutely immoral to make the species survival value judgment basing on the business fundamentals and prefer one species at the expense of another. Inevitably, this view is a perfect and rich-virtue attitude.

From idealistic viewpoint, the best policy is the one that addresses the needs of all or at least majority. However realistic perspective underscores few shortcomings in the counter proposition which may raise a couple of questions such as “how can one make value judgment out of the business fundamentals when the species protection needs resources and resource allocation and would be costly?”

Imagine a situation, having scarce financial resources, morality and environmental conscience level high, many people suffer hungers, famines, and water diseases, climate change and environmental degradation threaten, and extinction of some species imminent and no one wishes to forgo its basic rights and needs, so

where should funds be invested? How should policymakers set priorities? In the real world, is it feasible to adopt and design a collective policy to favor the protection of all species while people are desperately in need?

Perhaps priority setting and value judgments are the most subjective and controversial areas of study in the realm of policy analysis and policy making process. Both significantly influence the implications of policies. Despite this consciousness and the acknowledgment that the international community lacks a universal source for value judgment where international public goods matters, a little, for profoundly understanding them, has been conducted by research community. They deserve more research contributions.   

South-East Asia: policy challenge and social innovation issue

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The definition of social innovation still has to continue to evolve in South East Asia. Definitions and the field of action are in constant flux as the challenges of society change, so it makes it impossible to give one concise interpretation. (Hamalainen 2011) One may define social innovation, in the context of South East Asia, as new ways of reaching specific goals and they include, new organization forms, new regulations and new life styles that solve problems better than traditional practices do and that are worth imitating or institutionalizing.

Innovations in the social aspects have to change the direction of social development.

The most significant achievement and strength of an innovated society is its critical thinking education, small income disparities, little poverty, reciprocal altruism and the wide participation of citizens in political and economic life (some points from Sitra 2006).

In South East Asia the focus has been predominantly on export-oriented industrial growth and left behind environment and forest preservation, critical thinker development in universities, examining robust policy and planning for sustainable development with the use of new materials and functional technologies. In this part of the world, technological development and technological innovations are generally considered the pivotal point for socio-economic growth.

As yet South East Asia countries have no clear development strategy for social innovation. The area of social innovation will have to continue to evolve in order to improve the quality of life and the performance of society.

Their problems have to be tackled if they look forward to having stability and security.  The problems are: income raised and lose of competitiveness, entrepreneur and critical thinker shortage, environmentally degraded region, and more damage costs from natural disasters because of their poor infrastructures.

A part of entrepreneur shortage would be structural and now coexists with lack of motivation for cultivating critical thinker. Further issues are income disparities, huge poverty, healthcare and weak institutions and law enforcement and lack of attention to the importance of the infrastructure development.  

Innovation policy in the strong technical orientation is not enough, while the social dimension of innovation has been given less attention.

Thailand: Policy, Values, Floods

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development - Policy Analysis Research Group

The floods setback Thailand's economic growth this year and interrupt the comfort and normal lives of people. Thailand’s agricultures are ruined and it will cause a rise in the global rice market prices. The disaster has also forced up global prices of computer hard drives and disrupted global auto production after the flooding of industrial estates in the central provinces (Reuters Oct.2011)

Looking beyond the social pains which caused by the floods, from economic perspective, a sum of $13 billion budget deficit has been targeted for this fiscal year from Oct. to help with the recovery.

Some blames on Bangkok’s fast growth and its foundation on the flood-risked plain (Sawai Boonma, economist in Thailand) and others advocate the idea of misconduct in irrigation, water management and lack of dams and water storage capacity.

The role that dams play in the flood management is being debated among experts. However the fact is that eleven of Thailand's twenty six major dams currently contain water beyond their nominal capacity, and the rests are 90 to 99 percent "full". (Oct. 2011 ASIA NEWS)

The Chao Phraya River which snakes through Bangkok to the gulf of Thailand was recently flowing at a rate of 4,344 cubic meters per second.

The mighty Chao Phraya River on Oct 29th 2011 in the high tides

Given the above mentioned figures and add the increasing demand for electricity, water, lands and mitigating the risk of floods, the construction of new dams is inevitable. Despite Thailand has substantial untapped potential for large scale hydropower, its use is limited due to strong public opposition and green activists to large storage dams (IEA 2009)

The opposition claims that the large dams will displace the indigenous farmers in the river banks and destroy the forests and natural resources.

It is worth to note that city dwellers as well as farmers displaced since the floods began in July, claimed many lives and put many factories in trouble to pump out waters. They could face the same fate when the floods roll around again.  

It makes one thinks over:

SHOULD the Thailand government set its priority for constructing new dams and infrastructures simultaneously to address increasing demands of energy, and the flood mitigation efforts?

SHOULD oppositions think over their rationales and take different perspective and see the environmental issues from a broader angle?  

SHOULD the development plans be relaxed for the sake of environments or should we revise our consumption pattern?

Dears,………!!!

McDreamy: Sustainable lifestyle

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

In a new report, BBC news brought forward a topic “consumption” It claims that IF the entire world follow “the US-style consumption" our resources would be able to fully serve only 1.4 billion of the world population. In other word, this McDreamy lifestyle would be sustainable only for 20% of the earth inhabitants.

The report follows with another claim that a sum of US$ 200 million is daily spent for advertisement purposes and subsequently further encouragement for excess consumption.

Now the world leaders and economists whisper a prescription so-called “more domestic consumption" for China and other developing countries as a cure for the world economic growth recovery.  

DO YOU THINK, sociologists / philosophers should seize the moment and provide humankind with the fresh idea of life values? Should they redefine, what is so-called “the concept of progress” and “perfectionism” for policymakers and societies?

Review the definition of values

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The fact is that by nature capitalism has tendency to form cartels, shuffle off the costs of pollution and collapse under the weight of its own innovative financial instruments needs to be regulated by laws in order to employ its capacity for the general good. Business needs governing, as all organizations for reaching their optimal performance require law.

The question of the essence of progress and the necessity of a revision on it is critical in our days. It is crucial for economics to rethink about the application of the concept of progress. Too often it seems human interest gets subsumed to the market, that the is treated as absolute. A thing is often fundamentally worth more than what its buyer will pay for, something that can get lost by a science so focused on a particular theme.

Progress can become empty and mathematical, and conceal our possibility to be authentically be in the world (Heidegger) Heidegger critiques modern technological progress, and conceives of a truthful and correct attack on it. Businesses have an incentive to inflict common costs for financial gain which it makes the uncomfortable feeling with capitalism. In the liberal political structure the financial gain allows capitalism invests in the political power to manipulate policies and regulations. This political investment and politics-corporations close relationship will yield payoffs by the means of financial and externalities deregulation and dysfunctional policy (such as energy)

The sense of progress is often defined in terms of quantities. It could measure in a way to answer “to what extend the human needs of those quantities are fulfilled”. Our social, economic, and environmental systems are profoundly integrated and the quality of these links is by far, significant to the progress of the modern human

Progress

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

In a discussion with Professor Shabbir, I was asked for my thought on the concept of “progress”. By nature my mind was starting to make up words, based on my knowledge, for expressing my proposition, but I paused. Second thought ran through my mind that it would be better to look into “progress” from a different perspective. I have never thought about its concept in the context of our days.

Progress entails time and reference. It is a dynamic phenomenon that occurs over the time span. It should also be gauged and compared with a reference. Therefore an accurate definition, from social science standpoint, would be as “humankind evolves toward perfections”. In effect perfections are values which are established in societies. Let me borrow the values from the origin of law.  

Thomas Aquinas in his Summa Theologica describes that virtue denotes a certain perfection of powers. He says that “a thing's perfection is considered chiefly in regard to its end. But the end of power is act. Wherefore power is said to be perfect, according as it is determinate to its act”.

Thomas defined the four cardinal virtues as prudence, temperance, justice, and fortitude which are natural and revealed in nature, and they are binding on everyone. There are, however, three theological virtues, faith, hope and charity. These are somewhat supernatural and are distinct from other virtues in their object.

The object of the intellectual and moral virtues is something comprehensible to human reason. Therefore the theological virtues are specifically distinct from the moral and intellectual virtues

Giving this ground, we are now able to discuss about the concept of progress.

The concept of progress had been developing for centuries before conceding as a principle by western societies. In the 17th century, enlightenment thinkers believed that man emancipated by reason would rise to ever greater heights of achievement. The many manifestations of his humanity would be the engines of progress: language, community, science, commerce, moral sensibility and government. Unfortunately, many of those engines have failed.

Inevitably for developed western countries, the idea, in its classical form, was fundamental for their freedom, democracy and technological advancements.

The idea supported the development of reasoning and rationale and also free-market, social spending, innovation and investments. Societies have continued to advance in the paths which the idea of progress had paved.

But there is a flip side. The 18th century, societies were optimistic that business could bring prosperity; and that prosperity, in its turn, could bring enlightenment. Business has lived up to the first half of that promise. (Joseph Schumpeter) In the early 20th, the idea that individual progress should be subsumed into the shared destiny of nation led to break out of wars. Nationalism became the chief organizing principle of society even in the Middle East. Ruling elite in the pursuit of progress, in some countries, committed crime against people. The idea that humans would advance as part of a collective, would encourage few that have the right and the duty to impose progress on the masses whether they choose it or not,. It claims the blood of millions. With the demise of communism in the early 90s, it was proved that decay is inevitable for every system (No system is perfect and cannot get close to perfection) that basing on stagnated ideologies. Even ideology and concept should get changes over time as the society’s values are altered.   

Now the modern world focuses on consumption and quantities progress. They are based on the classical capitalism principles.

There is a question. Does capitalism with its classical and untouched principles along with technologies have power to tackle our day’s challenges such as climate change, inequality, poverty, energy security, water and food management and support any changes in favor of the wellbeing of the world?

Certainly history has more stories about the usefulness of technologies, but the point is that the quantitative concept of progress is unable to guide smoothly onto progress for humanity. From the human progress perspective, science needs governing and to be hitched to what humanity call “moral progress”. It yields untold benefits, if people wisely use it. Societies should understand what kind of technologies benefit the whole aspects of their lives and how the technologies should be used.  And to do that, we must take into account the society’s values and the way through which people behave in each society based on theirs own culture and the universal human value. 

Bangkok deluge: A journey across my memories

Shahab Sabahi
Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Bangkok has grown up along the mighty Chao Phraya River and its narrow branches and canals which cut the city to the smaller patch-like neighborhoods. The city experiences floods, in moderate scale, every year during the monsoon seasons. So floods and the river overflow are phenomena that embedded in the Bangkokian’s life and the city has adapted well to the phenomena. However the city officials admitted that the ongoing flood differed in magnitude and would put the city in jeopardy.

As if the city is in the state of war. Full efforts have been undertaken to enforce the city against the flood and its consequences. Sandbags, barriers, barricades, heavy duty equipments and armies make me recall the time when my home country was in a war. Those days, all citizens made their efforts to secure their lives. Danger, in both events, claims human lives and damages to properties. People are making barriers with sandbags to block WAVE moves in their properties. Barricades are stood up by officials to keep away PEOPLE from the dangerous zones. Streets fall in silence and darkness and ears are cautious only to the TV and radio noises. People rush, in both cases to supermarkets and sweep their shelves to assure undisrupted supply, in rainy days, from their homes’ food STOCKS. Individualism’s principles come into work and stand in foreground of every decision-making processes. Lucks and fortunes turn to instant-foods producers. They make their annual profit over night. Drinking waters go scarce. Panic and fear are bold within societies and everyone tries to anticipate what future would hold.

But there is a distinction between war and flood. In war, people shelter undergrounds, such as parking lots, metro tubes and basements; while in flood they move to penthouses!!   

Governments come short - Double standard when trouble hits: banks receive bailouts and citizens austerity

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

In “Politics as a Vocation” Max Weber defined the state as an entity which should successfully claim a "monopoly on the legitimate use of force". Social authority is supposed to be a rational-legal authority for enforcing regulations to protect citizens’ rights evenly; whether they are bankers or otherwise.

In large part, bankers have precipitated the current financial crisis. They received bailouts for mistakes they made. The bailouts, in effect, resulted in redistributing wealth to take from the public to enrich the bankers. In spite of enormous capital infusion the banks did not resume lending and investing in real strategic assets. It led to further stagnations in the economic growth. Taxpayers are always told that the governments must recapitalize the banks if the economy is to recover. Billions have been given to the banks under sweetheart terms; in return the taxpayers receive nothing but austerity measures. We should pay attention to what had happened beneath the surface.

The cost of Mexico’s bank rescue of 1994-1997 was estimated to be equal to 15 percent of its GDP, and a substantial part of that went to the wealthy owners of banks. Mexico’s growth stalled over the decade, a decade later, wages of Mexican workers adjusted for inflation, were lower while inequality was higher (J. Stiglitz 2009)

History tells us that the previous crises did little to diminish the influence of bankers in politics; certainly the current financial crisis would not end their influence either. Perhaps physical capitals and profit in the sector have been diminished but their political capital survived. If their investments in the area of financial markets, loans and financial products may fail to produce handsome profits, their political investments have yielded significantly. They could secure a deregulated financial market as well as tax-free heavens to save their profits.

Do governments truly protect citizens’ rights evenly? Does the old-fashion capitalism concept need to be mended and give a way to Neo-capitalism? Should the government servants in finance ministries and central banks come from non-private bank backgrounds? 

The Occupy Wall Street and its EU-ASIA versions will make out the answers of the above mentioned questions.   

Stimulating debt-financed consumption OR subsidizing clean energy technology development?

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Like other sectors of an economy, a subsidy scheme for renewable energy technology development will inevitably increase the economy’s deficit, but economy’s debt only measures one side of the balance sheet, what it owes. Assets are important too. If a subsidy scheme (not necessary cash handout) helps to boost asset investments that increase the country’s long-run productivity, the country will be in better shape in the long run and even short-run output and employment may increase.

If so, why do not countries seriously support a subsidy scheme for clean energy investment? Are the clean energy plants not regarded as assets? Or perhaps their capacities are far low and then won’t be able to improve the productivity of economy? Or do the financial markets expect a high short-term profit rather than strategic investments?

As far as the air quality is concerned, employing the clean energy technologies obviously benefit societies and mitigate the energy security concerns in counties. Countries (example: the US) prefer to stimulate their economies through debt-financed consumption. A general notion says, the debt-financed consumption scheme is essential for high standard of living now and in the future. In other hand, the general consensus concedes that the existing pattern of consumption will degrade the environmental system and reduce standard of living for sure in the future. The debt-financed consumption will lower the standard of living when the time comes to pay back the debt or even just to pay interest on it.

If a country stimulates its economy through investment, future output will be higher with good investments by more than enough to pay the interest. Such investments not only improve standards of living today but also improve those of next generation.

High fossil fuel demand, decaying energy infrastructure, inefficient conventional energy supply chain and generation system and global warming all cloud our societies’ long-term outlook An effective subsidy scheme, for clean energy technology development, would target them or at least not make them worse. The nature of the energy sector requires exogenous help if it is supposed to get structural change and we believe the clean energy technologies will improve economy’s productivity and can replace the fossil fuel technologies and its profit!

Long experience of climate change

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Climate change has been scientifically proven to be the ultimate cause of significant human crises in pre-industrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere by Professor David D. Zhang from the Department of Geography of the University of Hong Kong (HKU).The research finding is the first scientific verification about climate-crisis causal linkages. ( the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, the most prestigious journal in social sciences, on October 4th,  2011, Hong Kong time)Zhang collected required data about climate, demography, agro-ecology, and the economy from the years 1500 to 1800 in Europe and found that these variables up and down along with the weather. They used a number of criteria to confirm that the relationship was causative and not merely associative:  there had to be a strong and, importantly, consistent relationship between variable and effect; the cause had to precede the outcome; and the researchers had to be able to predict the effect based on the cause.
And as is the case with everything in the environment, a change in one area often triggered  a cascade of changes in others. Take for example the cooling that occurred from 1560 to 1660—a century within the 300-year era known as the Little Ice Age: plants couldn't grow as much or for as long, so grain prices soared, famine broke out, and nutrition sank. Poor diet means poor growth even for survivors, and the late 16th century saw a decline in average human body height by 0.8 inches. As temperatures rose again after 1650, human height crawled back up too. Before it did, however, sky-high grain prices and accompanying real wage declines brought social problems more pressing than height.Peaks of social disturbance such as rebellions, revolutions, and political reforms followed every decline of temperature, with a one- to 15-year time lag adding that many such disturbances escalated into armed conflicts. The number of wars increased by 41% in the cold phase.
There were more peaceable responses too. Poorly fed or otherwise deprived people tend to decamp from where they're living and move somewhere else, and migration rates increased in this era along with social disturbance. The problem was, in these cases the relocation wasn't the hearty westward-ho kind of 19th century America, when well-fed settlers could live off the land (and the buffalo) while they sought new homesteads on the frontiers. Rather, migration among the hungry or unwell often leads to epidemics. It may be too much to lay the great European plagues of 1550 to 1670 entirely at the door of global cooling, but dramatic climate shift and resultant poor health surely played a role. It was around 1650 as well that European population collapsed, bottoming out at just 105 million people across the entire continent. Wetter countries with more fertile land or those with stable trading economies tended to do better in this eras of hardship, but no one was spared.
So the results show that climate change has affected human life and also no single event can be attributed entirely to global warming. Our own time follows the same pattern and will experience the same natural pressures and cultural changes as before. 

Banks, Governments against Economic principles

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The concept of fairness as one of economic principles requires firms and individuals pay for the consequences of their investments and decisions which they made. It suggests that banks and insurance companies, who have invested in risky toxic assets, should pay for the full direct costs of washing off their own created financial crisis and mess. Also they should pay to fix any financial damaged that imposed to innocent people. Contrary to this economic principle, governments bailed out banks who were proximate to bankruptcy and saved them. Is it the fairness definition in classical capitalism? Why did government not let troubled banks go down? Why did governments not bail out other troubled manufacturers and companies evenly same as they had treated banks? 

Now banks report benefits (BBC Oct 4^th 2011, Business report) while our societies are yet long way to struggle securing their jobs and managing their living expenses. So it is not quite clear what the banks’ sources of profit are and why their profitable investments have not created any jobs. The banks that survived and now generating profits claim that making them pay for the costs of those that failed is unfair. Perhaps they forgot their survivals owe the societies who are now in trouble.

If this is the fairness that defined by banks’ economists, one should reflect the legitimacy of economic principles OR rethink about the existence of flaws in classical capitalism.   

 

Since governments’ economic teams (at least it holds true for the US since the Reagan administration onward) are usually coming from the private banks or somehow are connected and have interests in the financial sectors, one should not surprise if governments who are supposed to protect the entire societies’ interests, do nothing  with regards to regulation in the financial sector. Even now banks generating profits, governments have not claimed returns to taxpayers’ money which had been lent to banks when they were in trouble. It is time to sound the bells that the old fashion capitalism thought decay occurs and the advent of the neocapitalism is just started  

Thoughts in Silence

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Hakariya Michio, a 74-year Nagasaki atomic bomb veteran, shared his experience of August 9 1945 through a seminar in Bangkok. His smart face told a few silent stories. He was 8 when the atomic bomb dropped. Luck was described in his way. His family, just few days earlier to August 9th, left Tokyo for Nagasaki, as they had sought for a shelter. It had been in air that Tokyo would be bombarded. He described himself lucky enough as he eventually survived the tragic event and its legacy, risk of radiation. But a memory that filled with unexplainable horrible images has been far away from being replaced by hopes. He described the moment of bomb explosion as the absolute silence. As if time was stagnated. Human’s senses could not work accurately. It was totally horrible and terrors.

His slides gave a feeling of the aftermath. The slides also displayed Nagasaki, before the tragic event and its current modern mega-city. But there was no sign of the moment, no sign which could explain the innocent people’s feelings, pains. 

Mr. Hakariya was asked with one audience, “Can you give us your feeling about the moment?” his answer was simply NO. In fact, he knew, the feelings can not be expressed accurately with words. Another lady asked how would we pass this experience of horrors down to the next generation? He again wisely answered that it would not be his duty to convey the moment. The new generation might learn from historic books.

I personally experienced a war. I could hear and feel him. The invisible wounds of war and its cognitive injuries cannot be written in words. They cannot be passed down to the next generations. Those who had got these injuries, have built their wishes and futures based on them. Sciences may help people who suffer the physical injuries caused by wars, ease their pains and overcome their disabilities to some degree. But for sure, there is no cure for cognitive injuries.    

A question ran through my mind. I did not want to bother the audiences with a fundamental question. Eventually it was launched. “Is there any way through which we could mitigate the risk of another atomic bomb explosion? What was the chief cause of such a mad behaviour? Of course we read our minds and answered each other with a profound silence.

Japan: Prerequisite to policy shift - political structure change

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Mancur Olson argued in his second famous book, “The Rise and Decline of Nations (1982)” that long political stability may halt the social and economic growth. Stable democracies suffered from "institutional sclerosis", (think of conservative and rigid) as their lobbies enforced inefficient redistribution. The Japanese economic miracles, during the 60s to the late 80s, occurred, not because they could build afresh on ruined cities, but because they could build afresh on the old fashion and decayed social and political institutions and design more inclusive, innovative and hence more efficient, lobbying systems.

Japan’s lobbies used to not only pursue their interests but if it happened that the external or internal forces stood against their interests, they were flexible enough, pragmatic and innovative to overcome realistically the obstacles at some costs. At the time of the 70s energy crisis, prime minister Kakuri Tanaka was a leading force in Japan’s energy lobby. Despite enormous pressure from US secretary of state at the time, Henry Kissinger, to persuade Japan to align itself with the US on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the prime minister innovatively responded swiftly to the plea of nervous local business enterprises, and Japan issued a statement unambiguously backing the Arab position on the Middle East.

The point is the Japanese politics could balance its national interests, national proud with its deep and strategic relationship with other countries. It was away from dogma and Japan’s move paid off as it was spared from OPEC cutbacks on those days and energy flowed into the country.

Energy security and crisis always induces big shock in Japan’s economy and consequently caused radical policy shift. A flexible and innovative political structure can permit a swift change in its economic structure. With inefficient lobby group, it is accurate to say that decay has already happened in Japan’s politics. Given energy security, strong yen, population aging challenges along with social-wide indifferent attitudes put the country in a vulnerable position and it makes hard any efforts to detail domestic and foreign policies.  Despite the country’s efforts, in energy saving and efficiency, a stable, reliable energy supply system is yet a remote target.

Before further technical innovations in the Japan, an innovation and evolution should occur in Japan’s politics. A strong and resilient political structure requires appropriate fresh ideology, political parties and lobby groups. It is now obvious that Japan’s conventional political economy doctrine does not fit the new world order. Japan should take action before the new world order forces it to accept the changes.

China’s Foreign Policy and Strategy toward South Asia

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development - Policy Analysis Research Group

As tension escalates in the US - Pakistan relation, the ground is prepared for the presence of China, right at the doorstep of the Persian Gulf. From energy security standpoint, it is one of the most strategic locations in the world. A naval armed force underpins in many aspects China's foreign policy, national pride and energy supply flow and security. Furthermore it gives China a new edge to effectively challenge the US presence in the oceans, in Asia and Persian Gulf.

Yale Global published an analysis that had been conducted by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney. It read that " Reports that Pakistan invited China to construct a naval base in Gwadar have reignited
concerns about Beijing's strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean. For many China-watchers, the militarization of this commercial port - just 500 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz - would confirm longstanding anxieties about Beijing's so-called "string of pearls" strategy. Yet there are few reasons to fear China's strategic weight in the Indian Ocean. The ports are, as China contends, conventional shipping facilities to connect landlocked Chinese provinces with trade routes. Transforming the commercial ports into
military bases would not only require extensive fortification but also convincing host countries to upend a geopolitical strategy balancing interests of China, the US and India. The ports have long-term strategic
value." But the analysis concludes that it's in the interest of all, including China, to minimize conflicts in the Indian Ocean and keep trade routes open.

We should take the article's argument with a grain of salt. As matter of fact, China seeks for strategic military and values in the Indian Ocean ports as well as the Bay of Bangle's ports. There is no reason to think,
logically, China can run a pipeline, bound china's western provinces the whole way through hostile areas and India from Gwadar-Pakistan, to carry crude oil. However the article's china's economic motive hypothesis may hold true ONLY for Burma's port facilities in the bay of Bangle and to some extent Bangladesh.
The reality is China's naval military capability has been expanding. It shifts the balance of geo-economic and alters the form of geopolitics across the region. Every single country across the region will react based on its aggregate capability.
Certainly it does emphasize forming of a multilateral, unified cooperation across South and SE Asia.

From Market failure to Political failure – Who may fix the failure?

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

On Sep 18^th, 2011, in his joint blog with R. Posner, G. Becker compared market failure with government failure. Writing as usual, he again built his argument over a fusion notion made up over a large range of ideologies. His fusion notion has the neoclassical, altruistic, liberal, anti-self interest elements. He argues that “……actual governments would not necessarily do what economists and others had wanted them to do because there was government failure as well as market failure. Before recommending government actions to correct market failures, one should consider whether actual government policies would worsen rather than improve private sector outcomes. Since many factors often made for considerable government failure, considering such failure would be crucial and not just a theoretical fine point…” and he concluded “…This belief is based on the conclusion that, on the whole, government failure is far more pervasive, damaging, and less self-correcting, than is market failure. Others may reach different conclusions, but these are the problems that a relevant welfare analysis should focus on. Simply concluding that in particular instances markets are not working perfectly is a misleading and incorrect basis for supporting active and sizable government involvement.”

So he left readers again with a big question mark “so if government intervention, in big scale, is not an appropriate solution and others should focus their welfare analysis on practical way-out that so far failed to recognize and market long fails to do self-correcting its flaws and its inefficient performance, HOW LONG WOULD this welfare analysis take OTHERS to come up with ONE PRACTICAL solution for fixing market failures and help out societies? Perhaps there have been some structure flaws and fundamental problems with MARKET itself?

Contrary to Dr. Becker’s doctrine that reads “ Ideas are held to be endogenous, that is, they are created after the fact to justify material interests rather than being independent causes of social behaviour” , ideas are matter, come first and are primary both as motivators of human action and as sources of social changes.
Both Government and Market are social institutions which were evolved to support human social life. They both originate from an identical and unique human idea. They both emerged long time ago and have survived together and feed each others. It is wrong if one thinks GOVERNMENT is as a separate entity from MARKET.

The world experiences enormous changes in each second. If their malfunctions have been surfaced, simply one should search the cause in the source of idea and its consequent institutional structures. Perhaps it is time to radically change our old fashion ideologies.