Japan: Prerequisite to policy shift - political structure change

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Mancur Olson argued in his second famous book, “The Rise and Decline of Nations (1982)” that long political stability may halt the social and economic growth. Stable democracies suffered from "institutional sclerosis", (think of conservative and rigid) as their lobbies enforced inefficient redistribution. The Japanese economic miracles, during the 60s to the late 80s, occurred, not because they could build afresh on ruined cities, but because they could build afresh on the old fashion and decayed social and political institutions and design more inclusive, innovative and hence more efficient, lobbying systems.

Japan’s lobbies used to not only pursue their interests but if it happened that the external or internal forces stood against their interests, they were flexible enough, pragmatic and innovative to overcome realistically the obstacles at some costs. At the time of the 70s energy crisis, prime minister Kakuri Tanaka was a leading force in Japan’s energy lobby. Despite enormous pressure from US secretary of state at the time, Henry Kissinger, to persuade Japan to align itself with the US on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the prime minister innovatively responded swiftly to the plea of nervous local business enterprises, and Japan issued a statement unambiguously backing the Arab position on the Middle East.

The point is the Japanese politics could balance its national interests, national proud with its deep and strategic relationship with other countries. It was away from dogma and Japan’s move paid off as it was spared from OPEC cutbacks on those days and energy flowed into the country.

Energy security and crisis always induces big shock in Japan’s economy and consequently caused radical policy shift. A flexible and innovative political structure can permit a swift change in its economic structure. With inefficient lobby group, it is accurate to say that decay has already happened in Japan’s politics. Given energy security, strong yen, population aging challenges along with social-wide indifferent attitudes put the country in a vulnerable position and it makes hard any efforts to detail domestic and foreign policies.  Despite the country’s efforts, in energy saving and efficiency, a stable, reliable energy supply system is yet a remote target.

Before further technical innovations in the Japan, an innovation and evolution should occur in Japan’s politics. A strong and resilient political structure requires appropriate fresh ideology, political parties and lobby groups. It is now obvious that Japan’s conventional political economy doctrine does not fit the new world order. Japan should take action before the new world order forces it to accept the changes.