ASEAN: Now circumstances demand different focus

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Before an incident occurs and urges a change, ASEAN’s leaders now must get fundamental changes in attitudes toward regional cooperation and the importance of a security pack throughout the region.

The recent meeting of ASEAN has stressed again that the establishment of an East Asia community would be a common goal of member states in years ahead. As it was, the economic development topics dominated the summit’s agenda and again security aspects (non-traditional ones) have been missed. The ASEAN leaders must know that the economic and social growth will not be sustainable within an unstable region and when the supply chain of strategic commodities is at risk. The leaders must give increased attention and seriousness to the importance of energy and environment security, natural resource and water resource management, development and cooperation across the region for the benefits of sustainable development.

Despite substantial progress in economic cooperation, there is no sense of a security cooperation in ASEAN. The South China Sea disputes, between some of the ASEAN member states and China, may jeopardize the entire stability across the region and beyond. It includes disruption in energy flows (ship liners), development of natural resources and arm competitions across the region. It turns the existence economic cooperation into competition. Up to date, East Asian integration remains largely economic and market driven and never motivated by security issues. While expanding economic cooperation is certainly a positive development, an exclusive focus on the economic advantages of regional integration and forgetting the security aspects misleads the realization of a more comprehensive and enduring regional cooperation.

The absence of a common cultural and religious heritage, stark economic disparities, emerging confrontational nationalism, widespread domestic governance issues, past US opposition to stronger regional institutions, and both traditional and nontraditional security threats make it abundantly clear that the realization of an East Asia community will be no easy task. Faced with the need to overcome such monumental challenges, there is uncertainty among policymakers about how best to move forward. (Tanaka and Liff 2008)

Here it is. Long term stability requires, region-wide, a comprehensive non-traditional security pack which is rules-based rather than values-based approach. The non-traditional security pack should aim to address inter and intra regional issues through voluntary and coordinated actions, rather than allowing the most powerful governments in the region or out to govern and impose their interests.  Such a pack is the most practical way to deepen trust and long term bound and cooperation between states and gradually lay the groundwork for more substantive regional cooperation in the future. Given the current circumstances in the region, and in particular its vast diversity, a rules-based and process-oriented approach may be the only practical strategy to gradually transcend the potential risks and obstacles and further consolidate the peace, prosperity, and stability of ASEAN.

Thailand: Policy, Values, Floods

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development - Policy Analysis Research Group

The floods setback Thailand's economic growth this year and interrupt the comfort and normal lives of people. Thailand’s agricultures are ruined and it will cause a rise in the global rice market prices. The disaster has also forced up global prices of computer hard drives and disrupted global auto production after the flooding of industrial estates in the central provinces (Reuters Oct.2011)

Looking beyond the social pains which caused by the floods, from economic perspective, a sum of $13 billion budget deficit has been targeted for this fiscal year from Oct. to help with the recovery.

Some blames on Bangkok’s fast growth and its foundation on the flood-risked plain (Sawai Boonma, economist in Thailand) and others advocate the idea of misconduct in irrigation, water management and lack of dams and water storage capacity.

The role that dams play in the flood management is being debated among experts. However the fact is that eleven of Thailand's twenty six major dams currently contain water beyond their nominal capacity, and the rests are 90 to 99 percent "full". (Oct. 2011 ASIA NEWS)

The Chao Phraya River which snakes through Bangkok to the gulf of Thailand was recently flowing at a rate of 4,344 cubic meters per second.

The mighty Chao Phraya River on Oct 29th 2011 in the high tides

Given the above mentioned figures and add the increasing demand for electricity, water, lands and mitigating the risk of floods, the construction of new dams is inevitable. Despite Thailand has substantial untapped potential for large scale hydropower, its use is limited due to strong public opposition and green activists to large storage dams (IEA 2009)

The opposition claims that the large dams will displace the indigenous farmers in the river banks and destroy the forests and natural resources.

It is worth to note that city dwellers as well as farmers displaced since the floods began in July, claimed many lives and put many factories in trouble to pump out waters. They could face the same fate when the floods roll around again.  

It makes one thinks over:

SHOULD the Thailand government set its priority for constructing new dams and infrastructures simultaneously to address increasing demands of energy, and the flood mitigation efforts?

SHOULD oppositions think over their rationales and take different perspective and see the environmental issues from a broader angle?  

SHOULD the development plans be relaxed for the sake of environments or should we revise our consumption pattern?

Dears,………!!!