China’s aggressive foreign policy and its chief motive

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development– Policy Analysis Research Group

Let’s look at China’s rise through a negative lens. 2008 onward the country has aggressively turned to become arrogant and antagonized its neighboring countries. Its foreign policy has got tough in the South China Sea, the dispute on the Spratly islands and in its territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. China sent off its ever aircraft carriers for warming up and trials. It may be interpreted as the possibility of presence in the open ocean for patrolling the energy flows from the Middle East. Whatever the China motive is, the US and India should reassess their foreign policies toward South-East Asia. Otherwise this may construe as China’s aggressive behaviour and cause arm race across the whole region. Some say that China seeks for the potential natural resources, in particular energy, in South East Asia. It, however, may not hold true when the total potential energy deposit is applied to the china energy equation.

SO IF we believe that the acquisition of ENERGY AND NATURAL resources is not the prime motive of China’s aggressive behaviour and hostile foreign policy, WHAT may be the cause?

B. SCOWCROFT, the former US National Security Advisor, in an interview in spring 2008, highlighted that Chinese history indicated the Han Chinese had not been unusually aggressive. When China had been aggressive, it was usually after they had been conquered from the outside or humiliated (Z. Brzezinski). He argued that one of the least likely directions for any instability would be outward aggression.

Given the above mentioned argument and according to history, China was once humiliated by the WEST in the nineteenth century, which was burned into their historical consciousness up to date.

To see another issue in China’s affair, lets read a famous quote from Jiang Zemin, when he was asked “what is the biggest problem the government faces in China?”, he answered “ too many Chinese” . As the china economy growth pushes up, middle class’s demand grows sharper and it presses further the government for its demands. We should bear in our mind that semi-free market exercise is pretty new experience for China and the government resilience to any domestic demand has yet to be tested. However China is very good at the centralized government (The first state established by them 2500 BC, The origin of political system 2011) 

So in short the chief China’s concerns are: How to stay firm before the WEST and how maintain stability throughout the whole country. (Z. Brziznski 2009)

After 2008, the financial crisis, China found out that time was in its side, to quench that historical wound and establish itself as a multidimensional global and regional actor – economic, technological, civilizational and of course military for its future challenges.   

From Chinese point of view, the US has a rather dysfunctional government, and it is no longer a legitimate superior political and economic system, to dominate International Institutions. The US economy runs in debt, no longer competitive in manufacturing, but blames others for its huge trade deficit. (Wenran Jiang 2011- UoA)

Any democratic moves at home would be suspected as conspiracy plans from the WEST. To manage its internal affair, China’s government may react and follow the nationalist sentiment of Chinese, by provoking its neighboring countries on the disputed territorial islands and boarders.   

China’s foreign policy will pursue its internal affair dynamics. If China’s internal affair moves calmly forward, the China foreign policy would be less aggressive

Inevitably, the China economic and social development and rise will exhaust its indigenous resources and will squeeze its social and political structures.

A wise, creative, progressive, realistic and consistent foreign policy from the US toward EAST and SOUTH ASIA and particularly toward the GREATE CHINA (Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) will mitigate fears and ensure no conflict by either accident or misunderstanding.