Geopolitics and Geo-economic factors which shape India’s energy security policy

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development– Policy Analysis Research Group

Electricity demand in India is swiftly increasing, and the 830 billion kilowatt hours produced in 2008 was triple the 1990 output, though still represented only some 700 kWh per capita for the year. Large transmission losses allowed only 591 billion kWh consumption out of the total generation. Coal provides 68% of the electricity at present, but reserves are limited. Gas provides 8%, hydro 14%.

India with its large population and with 6.3% annual economic growth, nuclear power and Natural Gas will play an important role in the country’s energy security policy. The per capita electricity consumption figure is expected to double by 2020 and reach 5000-6000 kWh by 2050. (IEA 2009)

In short run, natural gas supply through pipeline from Iran or Turkmenistan would be beyond India’s reach as geopolitics outweighs geo-economic factors in the country’s energy security calculus. However, India’s future multidimensional status in the world stage may alter the existing geopolitical equation.

Despite of a substantial number of untapped potential for large scale hydropower, India is limited to exploit due to strong public opposition to large storage dams. Private sector evaluates the hydropower as a higher risk proposition compared to thermal projects. (ADB 2008).
India’s indigenous coal is regarded as ash-high. So it will have environmental consequences. Furthermore India’s states with coal concentration are located in East where Naxalite rebellion is active. 

In contrast, nuclear power generation has fairly established itself in India’s energy mix, though it has suffered poor performance and a few technical issues. Moreover the nuclear fuel supply used to be the Indian governments’ headache; it is, however, no longer a big deal.
Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydro and renewable sources of electricity. As of 2010, India has 20 nuclear power plants in operation generating 4,780 MW. India’s nuclear power industry is undergoing rapid expansion with plans to increase nuclear power output to 63,000 MW by 2032. Only Nuclear Energy offers Emission free energy on the massive and expanding scale the world so urgently requires. Moreover nuclear energy is considered to be an environmentally benign source of energy.

As is the case in China, the implementation of economic reforms India has embarked on will be a determining factor shaping india’s energy security. India appears determined to become a full fledged great power in the current century. Its capacity to do so will require it to become a multidimensional global actor, economic, technological, civilizational, and military. A solution to India’s energy challenge links into what extend it achieves the above mentioned status.