Thoughts in Silence

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Hakariya Michio, a 74-year Nagasaki atomic bomb veteran, shared his experience of August 9 1945 through a seminar in Bangkok. His smart face told a few silent stories. He was 8 when the atomic bomb dropped. Luck was described in his way. His family, just few days earlier to August 9th, left Tokyo for Nagasaki, as they had sought for a shelter. It had been in air that Tokyo would be bombarded. He described himself lucky enough as he eventually survived the tragic event and its legacy, risk of radiation. But a memory that filled with unexplainable horrible images has been far away from being replaced by hopes. He described the moment of bomb explosion as the absolute silence. As if time was stagnated. Human’s senses could not work accurately. It was totally horrible and terrors.

His slides gave a feeling of the aftermath. The slides also displayed Nagasaki, before the tragic event and its current modern mega-city. But there was no sign of the moment, no sign which could explain the innocent people’s feelings, pains. 

Mr. Hakariya was asked with one audience, “Can you give us your feeling about the moment?” his answer was simply NO. In fact, he knew, the feelings can not be expressed accurately with words. Another lady asked how would we pass this experience of horrors down to the next generation? He again wisely answered that it would not be his duty to convey the moment. The new generation might learn from historic books.

I personally experienced a war. I could hear and feel him. The invisible wounds of war and its cognitive injuries cannot be written in words. They cannot be passed down to the next generations. Those who had got these injuries, have built their wishes and futures based on them. Sciences may help people who suffer the physical injuries caused by wars, ease their pains and overcome their disabilities to some degree. But for sure, there is no cure for cognitive injuries.    

A question ran through my mind. I did not want to bother the audiences with a fundamental question. Eventually it was launched. “Is there any way through which we could mitigate the risk of another atomic bomb explosion? What was the chief cause of such a mad behaviour? Of course we read our minds and answered each other with a profound silence.

Japan: Prerequisite to policy shift - political structure change

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Mancur Olson argued in his second famous book, “The Rise and Decline of Nations (1982)” that long political stability may halt the social and economic growth. Stable democracies suffered from "institutional sclerosis", (think of conservative and rigid) as their lobbies enforced inefficient redistribution. The Japanese economic miracles, during the 60s to the late 80s, occurred, not because they could build afresh on ruined cities, but because they could build afresh on the old fashion and decayed social and political institutions and design more inclusive, innovative and hence more efficient, lobbying systems.

Japan’s lobbies used to not only pursue their interests but if it happened that the external or internal forces stood against their interests, they were flexible enough, pragmatic and innovative to overcome realistically the obstacles at some costs. At the time of the 70s energy crisis, prime minister Kakuri Tanaka was a leading force in Japan’s energy lobby. Despite enormous pressure from US secretary of state at the time, Henry Kissinger, to persuade Japan to align itself with the US on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the prime minister innovatively responded swiftly to the plea of nervous local business enterprises, and Japan issued a statement unambiguously backing the Arab position on the Middle East.

The point is the Japanese politics could balance its national interests, national proud with its deep and strategic relationship with other countries. It was away from dogma and Japan’s move paid off as it was spared from OPEC cutbacks on those days and energy flowed into the country.

Energy security and crisis always induces big shock in Japan’s economy and consequently caused radical policy shift. A flexible and innovative political structure can permit a swift change in its economic structure. With inefficient lobby group, it is accurate to say that decay has already happened in Japan’s politics. Given energy security, strong yen, population aging challenges along with social-wide indifferent attitudes put the country in a vulnerable position and it makes hard any efforts to detail domestic and foreign policies.  Despite the country’s efforts, in energy saving and efficiency, a stable, reliable energy supply system is yet a remote target.

Before further technical innovations in the Japan, an innovation and evolution should occur in Japan’s politics. A strong and resilient political structure requires appropriate fresh ideology, political parties and lobby groups. It is now obvious that Japan’s conventional political economy doctrine does not fit the new world order. Japan should take action before the new world order forces it to accept the changes.

China’s Foreign Policy and Strategy toward South Asia

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development - Policy Analysis Research Group

As tension escalates in the US - Pakistan relation, the ground is prepared for the presence of China, right at the doorstep of the Persian Gulf. From energy security standpoint, it is one of the most strategic locations in the world. A naval armed force underpins in many aspects China's foreign policy, national pride and energy supply flow and security. Furthermore it gives China a new edge to effectively challenge the US presence in the oceans, in Asia and Persian Gulf.

Yale Global published an analysis that had been conducted by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney. It read that " Reports that Pakistan invited China to construct a naval base in Gwadar have reignited
concerns about Beijing's strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean. For many China-watchers, the militarization of this commercial port - just 500 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz - would confirm longstanding anxieties about Beijing's so-called "string of pearls" strategy. Yet there are few reasons to fear China's strategic weight in the Indian Ocean. The ports are, as China contends, conventional shipping facilities to connect landlocked Chinese provinces with trade routes. Transforming the commercial ports into
military bases would not only require extensive fortification but also convincing host countries to upend a geopolitical strategy balancing interests of China, the US and India. The ports have long-term strategic
value." But the analysis concludes that it's in the interest of all, including China, to minimize conflicts in the Indian Ocean and keep trade routes open.

We should take the article's argument with a grain of salt. As matter of fact, China seeks for strategic military and values in the Indian Ocean ports as well as the Bay of Bangle's ports. There is no reason to think,
logically, China can run a pipeline, bound china's western provinces the whole way through hostile areas and India from Gwadar-Pakistan, to carry crude oil. However the article's china's economic motive hypothesis may hold true ONLY for Burma's port facilities in the bay of Bangle and to some extent Bangladesh.
The reality is China's naval military capability has been expanding. It shifts the balance of geo-economic and alters the form of geopolitics across the region. Every single country across the region will react based on its aggregate capability.
Certainly it does emphasize forming of a multilateral, unified cooperation across South and SE Asia.

From Market failure to Political failure – Who may fix the failure?

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

On Sep 18^th, 2011, in his joint blog with R. Posner, G. Becker compared market failure with government failure. Writing as usual, he again built his argument over a fusion notion made up over a large range of ideologies. His fusion notion has the neoclassical, altruistic, liberal, anti-self interest elements. He argues that “……actual governments would not necessarily do what economists and others had wanted them to do because there was government failure as well as market failure. Before recommending government actions to correct market failures, one should consider whether actual government policies would worsen rather than improve private sector outcomes. Since many factors often made for considerable government failure, considering such failure would be crucial and not just a theoretical fine point…” and he concluded “…This belief is based on the conclusion that, on the whole, government failure is far more pervasive, damaging, and less self-correcting, than is market failure. Others may reach different conclusions, but these are the problems that a relevant welfare analysis should focus on. Simply concluding that in particular instances markets are not working perfectly is a misleading and incorrect basis for supporting active and sizable government involvement.”

So he left readers again with a big question mark “so if government intervention, in big scale, is not an appropriate solution and others should focus their welfare analysis on practical way-out that so far failed to recognize and market long fails to do self-correcting its flaws and its inefficient performance, HOW LONG WOULD this welfare analysis take OTHERS to come up with ONE PRACTICAL solution for fixing market failures and help out societies? Perhaps there have been some structure flaws and fundamental problems with MARKET itself?

Contrary to Dr. Becker’s doctrine that reads “ Ideas are held to be endogenous, that is, they are created after the fact to justify material interests rather than being independent causes of social behaviour” , ideas are matter, come first and are primary both as motivators of human action and as sources of social changes.
Both Government and Market are social institutions which were evolved to support human social life. They both originate from an identical and unique human idea. They both emerged long time ago and have survived together and feed each others. It is wrong if one thinks GOVERNMENT is as a separate entity from MARKET.

The world experiences enormous changes in each second. If their malfunctions have been surfaced, simply one should search the cause in the source of idea and its consequent institutional structures. Perhaps it is time to radically change our old fashion ideologies.   

A green dream

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development– Policy Analysis Research Group

Environmentalism is an ideology that inspires a number of social movements with fundamental concerns for environmental conservation and improvement of the environment and the human’s life quality. Since the early 90s, large efforts have been made to elaborate a global wide accepted regulation to help halting the increase of GHG in the atmosphere. Despite the public consciousness about the risk of climate change, governments and international community authorities have achieved no effective global collaboration. WHY?

Political economy and social sciences can give a proximity answer. The political economy scholar Mancur Olson pointed out; in his book “The Logic of Collective Action” collective action is either unreachable or begins to break down as the size of cooperating group increases. In large groups it becomes harder to monitor the individual contributions of members; free riding and other form of opportunistic behaviour become much more common   

Any sort of collective action, for protecting environment, in global scale tends to follow Olson’s framework. Green lobbies may be dispersed instead of being concentrated.

Regardless how far people share  common interests in cutting down the GHG concentration and no matter how large the green lobbies could be, producers still enable organize effective lobbies for pursuing their common interest which centre profit maximization with rising production.  

The fact is democratic governments respond to influential lobbies as it is assumed that the interplay of pressure groups is the essence of democracy

The logic of collective action can be examined in the global context. Countries will realistically contribute time and money to an association if and only if their contributions make a great deal of difference for them. Given the nature of climate change, any collaboration makes no sense where there is possibility of free-ride possibility.

Geopolitics and Geo-economic factors which shape India’s energy security policy

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development– Policy Analysis Research Group

Electricity demand in India is swiftly increasing, and the 830 billion kilowatt hours produced in 2008 was triple the 1990 output, though still represented only some 700 kWh per capita for the year. Large transmission losses allowed only 591 billion kWh consumption out of the total generation. Coal provides 68% of the electricity at present, but reserves are limited. Gas provides 8%, hydro 14%.

India with its large population and with 6.3% annual economic growth, nuclear power and Natural Gas will play an important role in the country’s energy security policy. The per capita electricity consumption figure is expected to double by 2020 and reach 5000-6000 kWh by 2050. (IEA 2009)

In short run, natural gas supply through pipeline from Iran or Turkmenistan would be beyond India’s reach as geopolitics outweighs geo-economic factors in the country’s energy security calculus. However, India’s future multidimensional status in the world stage may alter the existing geopolitical equation.

Despite of a substantial number of untapped potential for large scale hydropower, India is limited to exploit due to strong public opposition to large storage dams. Private sector evaluates the hydropower as a higher risk proposition compared to thermal projects. (ADB 2008).
India’s indigenous coal is regarded as ash-high. So it will have environmental consequences. Furthermore India’s states with coal concentration are located in East where Naxalite rebellion is active. 

In contrast, nuclear power generation has fairly established itself in India’s energy mix, though it has suffered poor performance and a few technical issues. Moreover the nuclear fuel supply used to be the Indian governments’ headache; it is, however, no longer a big deal.
Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydro and renewable sources of electricity. As of 2010, India has 20 nuclear power plants in operation generating 4,780 MW. India’s nuclear power industry is undergoing rapid expansion with plans to increase nuclear power output to 63,000 MW by 2032. Only Nuclear Energy offers Emission free energy on the massive and expanding scale the world so urgently requires. Moreover nuclear energy is considered to be an environmentally benign source of energy.

As is the case in China, the implementation of economic reforms India has embarked on will be a determining factor shaping india’s energy security. India appears determined to become a full fledged great power in the current century. Its capacity to do so will require it to become a multidimensional global actor, economic, technological, civilizational, and military. A solution to India’s energy challenge links into what extend it achieves the above mentioned status.

China’s aggressive foreign policy and its chief motive

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development– Policy Analysis Research Group

Let’s look at China’s rise through a negative lens. 2008 onward the country has aggressively turned to become arrogant and antagonized its neighboring countries. Its foreign policy has got tough in the South China Sea, the dispute on the Spratly islands and in its territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. China sent off its ever aircraft carriers for warming up and trials. It may be interpreted as the possibility of presence in the open ocean for patrolling the energy flows from the Middle East. Whatever the China motive is, the US and India should reassess their foreign policies toward South-East Asia. Otherwise this may construe as China’s aggressive behaviour and cause arm race across the whole region. Some say that China seeks for the potential natural resources, in particular energy, in South East Asia. It, however, may not hold true when the total potential energy deposit is applied to the china energy equation.

SO IF we believe that the acquisition of ENERGY AND NATURAL resources is not the prime motive of China’s aggressive behaviour and hostile foreign policy, WHAT may be the cause?

B. SCOWCROFT, the former US National Security Advisor, in an interview in spring 2008, highlighted that Chinese history indicated the Han Chinese had not been unusually aggressive. When China had been aggressive, it was usually after they had been conquered from the outside or humiliated (Z. Brzezinski). He argued that one of the least likely directions for any instability would be outward aggression.

Given the above mentioned argument and according to history, China was once humiliated by the WEST in the nineteenth century, which was burned into their historical consciousness up to date.

To see another issue in China’s affair, lets read a famous quote from Jiang Zemin, when he was asked “what is the biggest problem the government faces in China?”, he answered “ too many Chinese” . As the china economy growth pushes up, middle class’s demand grows sharper and it presses further the government for its demands. We should bear in our mind that semi-free market exercise is pretty new experience for China and the government resilience to any domestic demand has yet to be tested. However China is very good at the centralized government (The first state established by them 2500 BC, The origin of political system 2011) 

So in short the chief China’s concerns are: How to stay firm before the WEST and how maintain stability throughout the whole country. (Z. Brziznski 2009)

After 2008, the financial crisis, China found out that time was in its side, to quench that historical wound and establish itself as a multidimensional global and regional actor – economic, technological, civilizational and of course military for its future challenges.   

From Chinese point of view, the US has a rather dysfunctional government, and it is no longer a legitimate superior political and economic system, to dominate International Institutions. The US economy runs in debt, no longer competitive in manufacturing, but blames others for its huge trade deficit. (Wenran Jiang 2011- UoA)

Any democratic moves at home would be suspected as conspiracy plans from the WEST. To manage its internal affair, China’s government may react and follow the nationalist sentiment of Chinese, by provoking its neighboring countries on the disputed territorial islands and boarders.   

China’s foreign policy will pursue its internal affair dynamics. If China’s internal affair moves calmly forward, the China foreign policy would be less aggressive

Inevitably, the China economic and social development and rise will exhaust its indigenous resources and will squeeze its social and political structures.

A wise, creative, progressive, realistic and consistent foreign policy from the US toward EAST and SOUTH ASIA and particularly toward the GREATE CHINA (Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) will mitigate fears and ensure no conflict by either accident or misunderstanding.

Neo-Capitalism thought - Doctrine

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development– Policy Analysis Research Group

Labor: Through the lens of classic capitalism, humans are resource to be exploited. Labor is just one more expense, its cost to be minimized for the maximum possible profit. Neo-capitalism believes, meaningful work is the prerequisites of a good life and that most of the value that derives from the work of the individual should benefit that individual, not only shareholders and investment banks.

Environment: Neo-capitalism views the environment as outer and prime system which contains resources for sustainable exploitation and source of life. The capability of environment is finite, the source of some of the most rewarding possessions which humans and animals can have, and a resource to be protected for the generations yet to come.

Community: In classic capitalism’s perspective, communities count for nothing, and corporations are only the matter. This is a dominating thought that corporations should initially be saved and then communities may be survived to drive the corporations’ engines for further growth.  Classic capitalism gauges everything with scale of opportunity costs. . Neo-capitalism views communities have inherent human values, and corporations have obligations toward them, whether in heydays when profits are generated mainly for shareholders and in hardship when communities are subject to failure. There is no such a TAX-HEAVEN for riches to save their assets for rainy days and leave behind communities for bailing out their debts.

Neo-capitalism places human’s values foremost. Human’s values are regarded as ever greater profits as for shareholders as a tiny minority.

The most harshly in the doctrines of those who promote globalization, the IMF has decreed that civil society in every country must drastically cut or eliminate social safety nets, privatize essential governmental functions so corporations can turn them into profit-making opportunities, and abandon control of their own economies and resources for the exploitation of transnational corporations. (Progressive Economics, Societies, Politics, Environment)