Contrary to principle: Budget deficit reduction policy

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

For reducing budget deficits, governments face two policy choices, either reducing government spending such as health care or raising tax on rich. WHICH one is good?

There are many ways to judge the value of a policy target. To answer the above mentioned question we should answer to the essential questions. How can we distinguish between good and bad?

Utilitarian theory requires, which is one of the most dominant doctrines with stronghold in North America, a policy to maximize pleasures.

According to a utilitarian theory, it assumes that the rightness of an action depends entirely on the amount of pleasure it tends to produce and the amount of pain it tends to prevent. It describes the good not only as pleasure, but also as happiness, benefit, advantage. J. S. Mill particularly emphasizes the importance of pleasures. Thus the values of the consequences of an action are evaluated based on not only the quantity but also the quality of the action’s pleasure.

So if one accepts utilitarianism, its policy target must be set based on the greatest-happiness principle of majority as a standard of right and wrong. Hence, the Budget Deficit Reduction Policy should be judged as good if it improves the greatest happiness of the greatest number, by either increasing pleasure or decreasing pain.

The notion and motion that denies health care to the poor who outnumbers rich, is a BAD policy when it makes the majority unpleased.

By this standard: “should not deficit-reduction policy raise taxes on the very rich?” However one can sticks to only the collective cost-benefit numbers, so then the value judgment is not something it can justify at all on the basis of those numbers.

Value Judgment and Progress

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

What we discussed in my earlier post “progress” on October 23^rd 2011and in the social scientists group, briefly covered origins for the idea of progress and its implication for society development.  Similar lines of inquiry might be pursued through other sociological literature, with the result of showing case studies that attempt to explain society, and particularly social advance. What was missed, explicit definition for the significant and essential characteristic of human beings, for striving after the accomplishment of certain life-purposes (E. Kant).. Such terms as "struggle," "conflict," "survival," and "adaptation stand for legitimate and highly important concepts in social theory, but concepts nevertheless which can give us no clue to the true nature of human progress.  

 

The definition of progress does not imply continuous, uninterrupted advance along a smooth path, but rather the halting, infrequent lunges forward which the actual page of history discloses (B. Woods). It is possible to assume an attitude on the subject of human evolution and denying all significance to judgments of better or worse, passed on human life conditions in different ages. No matter which standards or codes picked, the concept of social valuations is universal, and, indeed inevitable. It is decidedly worth while that they should be founded, not on narrow interests or artificial conceptions of life, but on a survey of the largest horizon of truth about humanity which it is possible

In contrast to the prevailing original idea of gradual and continuous progress, the orthodox idea of cycles of change existed in the fabric of the philosophies of east and their perceptions of progress. It means regular succession of changes seen in the movements of perfect bodies the return of the seasons, the course of growth and decay in the animal and vegetable world, as well as by periods of degeneration and decline visible in the history of nation. This idea also could survive long and worked well in that part of the world. (Fukuyama)

In social level, progress is essentially an idea of value and teleological idea (Flint). It cannot, therefore, be reduced to a formulation in terms of mechanism. The theory of natural selection is essentially a theory of the mechanics of a process. Evolution in general is a process from homogeneous to heterogeneous (Spencer). In social level, the progress is path-determined (Arrow) and the process’s goal must be set and judged to be good, and involving both the process and the judgment.

However one may still argue that with separating the process from the value judgment, the element of subjectivity appears which it may misguide societies toward a sound direction. The counter argument is “Societies, whose values have survived over the course of history, can set a series of values which suit and serve their space and time (context) as they have done”. This standpoint may fall short when the value judgment is supposed to be taken in a collective global scale (globalization). The problem lies in reconciling a standard of human values, which is valid not because it corresponds to a social actuality, but to a social need with that other dominant conception. So remote the global society ideal of life may be!

A great deal of efforts has been made by social scientists to develop a universal framework to explain the conditions of human development, though this universal framework is inconsistent where the value judgments, ethics and priorities are at play. As Bury highlighted, progress itself, does not suggest its values as a doctrine. So in social level, there may not be a supreme object of action toward the union of human thoughts.

ASEAN: Now circumstances demand different focus

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Before an incident occurs and urges a change, ASEAN’s leaders now must get fundamental changes in attitudes toward regional cooperation and the importance of a security pack throughout the region.

The recent meeting of ASEAN has stressed again that the establishment of an East Asia community would be a common goal of member states in years ahead. As it was, the economic development topics dominated the summit’s agenda and again security aspects (non-traditional ones) have been missed. The ASEAN leaders must know that the economic and social growth will not be sustainable within an unstable region and when the supply chain of strategic commodities is at risk. The leaders must give increased attention and seriousness to the importance of energy and environment security, natural resource and water resource management, development and cooperation across the region for the benefits of sustainable development.

Despite substantial progress in economic cooperation, there is no sense of a security cooperation in ASEAN. The South China Sea disputes, between some of the ASEAN member states and China, may jeopardize the entire stability across the region and beyond. It includes disruption in energy flows (ship liners), development of natural resources and arm competitions across the region. It turns the existence economic cooperation into competition. Up to date, East Asian integration remains largely economic and market driven and never motivated by security issues. While expanding economic cooperation is certainly a positive development, an exclusive focus on the economic advantages of regional integration and forgetting the security aspects misleads the realization of a more comprehensive and enduring regional cooperation.

The absence of a common cultural and religious heritage, stark economic disparities, emerging confrontational nationalism, widespread domestic governance issues, past US opposition to stronger regional institutions, and both traditional and nontraditional security threats make it abundantly clear that the realization of an East Asia community will be no easy task. Faced with the need to overcome such monumental challenges, there is uncertainty among policymakers about how best to move forward. (Tanaka and Liff 2008)

Here it is. Long term stability requires, region-wide, a comprehensive non-traditional security pack which is rules-based rather than values-based approach. The non-traditional security pack should aim to address inter and intra regional issues through voluntary and coordinated actions, rather than allowing the most powerful governments in the region or out to govern and impose their interests.  Such a pack is the most practical way to deepen trust and long term bound and cooperation between states and gradually lay the groundwork for more substantive regional cooperation in the future. Given the current circumstances in the region, and in particular its vast diversity, a rules-based and process-oriented approach may be the only practical strategy to gradually transcend the potential risks and obstacles and further consolidate the peace, prosperity, and stability of ASEAN.

Non-traditional security, Energy and Environment for development: South-East Asia

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The security threat posed by a deteriorating environment and global climate change can no longer be considered as marginal to the traditional security discourse. Since the end of the Cold War, the security literature observes that rather than wars, states have become increasingly vulnerable to the risks of non-traditional security threats such as energy security, cross-border conflicts, pandemics and cyber security. Perhaps it is time to add environmental security to the list.

Environmental Security refers; on an article titled “Environmental Security: Concept and Measurement, written by Allenby Braden; to the intersection of environmental and national security considerations at a national policy level. He as one of security theorists believes that states and regional inter-state organisations should recognise and formally introduce environmental security as a factor in their security and economic policy frameworks. (We’ve observed in our Foreign Policy design in our research work)

Such a framework would consider, the impact of economic development on the interaction between the ecosystem and human security within and across borders. It would also be capable of analysing the interaction between energy security and environmental security and develop strategies that would promote sustainable development.

South East Asia has abundant renewable energy sources, notably geothermal energy, solar power, bio-fuel and hydropower. The region’s hydropower resources are particularly of the Mekong River Basin and its commission committee, comprising Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, was formed in 1995 to jointly manage the sustainable development of the Mekong River Basin Indeed, there have been numerous hydropower dam projects built and planned over the last decade. (Singapore International Energy Week 2011)

South East Asia is home to approximately 600 million people, out of which 19 percent live on less than US$1.25 a day (the Millennium Development Goals Report 2011) Inevitably absolute poverty has been remarkably reduced to half compare to the Ninetieths , for further poverty reduction, the economies of the region’s states must keep their expansion up. It is translated a steeply rising demand for energy. 

The pursuit for regional energy security and economic development does not have to be a zero sum game in relation to the environment. In fact, sustainable development can be achieved if environmental considerations are built into the core of each nation's socio-economic policies and security strategies.

In conclusion, the south east region’s energy needs will continue to increase as the region's economy expands further in the years ahead. It remains uncertain whether economic growth can be achieved without further jeopardising human security, the environment and the global climate even if the region continues to increase its use of renewable energy. Unless environmental security is factored into the region’s national security and economic paradigm, the region will continue to face an energy security-sustainable development conundrum.

The story of energy system transformation- IF’s

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The story of technology and its benefit has been long dominated in the popular mind and to a large extent in reality that technology can transform our lifestyle and solve our problems.  The second half of the 20^th century, technology advancements in health, agriculture, manufacturing, communication, transportation and urban development have appreciably improved the quality and standard of life.   

However human’s mastery of resources, environment and in sum the material world has rather slowly advanced and still young. Energy resources and the ways we extract and use them, are much the same as they were a generation ago.

Perhaps climate change and the fossil energy demands rise cause an energy system transformation. The transformation could boost by the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy generation technologies. We should not be fooled as the cost reduction is not the critical driver and the transformation is influenced and halted with two strong obstacles     

First, the existing fossilized energy system which is politically supported. Fossil fuel producers have both powerful political allies and a powerful propaganda machine that denigrates alternatives. Furthermore the sector with over two trillion dollar in annual sales is the largest on the planet. (CSEinfo Peter Hartley 2010) Thus economic policies that affect the sector have global consequences are manipulated by these interest group. Yet what the sector and its defenders demand is, of course, precisely that it be let off the hook for the damage fossil fuel causes.

Second there is a technical issue with the renewable energy system. Despite the promising cost reduction in the technology development process, currently the renewable energy technologies generate energy only for fifty percent of their operating times. So it requires backup and standby energy generation systems to parallel with renewables make energy available for the whole time. It is translated to excess costs for the entire energy systems. The backup plants need to be fully invested however they are idled when renewable plants run.

To have a transformed and clean energy generation system and complete our mastery of energy resources, we should brush away the IF’s and obstacles.

}        If the downward trend of cost reduction in renewable technology development and its backup system OR energy storage system continues (technology development)

}        If the availability factor of renewable resources increases during operation (technology development and system integration)

}        If we price coal-fired power right, taking into account the huge health and other costs it imposes (global governance and law)

}        If  political and financial class that is deeply invested in energy sector dominated by fossil fuels, does stop subsidising the extraction and use of fossil fuels (directly with taxpayers’ money and indirectly by letting the industry off the hook for environmental costs)

it’s likely that we would have clean air, enough affordable clean energy for all.

Environmental Issue through Realism lens - Policy

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

Aljazeera news held a panel to discuss a controversial proposition:

 “Is it time to consider shifting efforts away from saving some of the world's most famous species?”

The program claims that in a recent survey of nearly six hundred scientists involved in wildlife protection, sixty percent agreed with the idea of shifting efforts away from species that are too difficult or too costly to preserve in the wild. 

If this proposition is converted into a policy, it would have both moral and environmental implications. Unsurprisingly opposition rejects the proposition and argues that it is absolutely immoral to make the species survival value judgment basing on the business fundamentals and prefer one species at the expense of another. Inevitably, this view is a perfect and rich-virtue attitude.

From idealistic viewpoint, the best policy is the one that addresses the needs of all or at least majority. However realistic perspective underscores few shortcomings in the counter proposition which may raise a couple of questions such as “how can one make value judgment out of the business fundamentals when the species protection needs resources and resource allocation and would be costly?”

Imagine a situation, having scarce financial resources, morality and environmental conscience level high, many people suffer hungers, famines, and water diseases, climate change and environmental degradation threaten, and extinction of some species imminent and no one wishes to forgo its basic rights and needs, so

where should funds be invested? How should policymakers set priorities? In the real world, is it feasible to adopt and design a collective policy to favor the protection of all species while people are desperately in need?

Perhaps priority setting and value judgments are the most subjective and controversial areas of study in the realm of policy analysis and policy making process. Both significantly influence the implications of policies. Despite this consciousness and the acknowledgment that the international community lacks a universal source for value judgment where international public goods matters, a little, for profoundly understanding them, has been conducted by research community. They deserve more research contributions.   

South-East Asia: policy challenge and social innovation issue

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development – Policy Analysis Research Group

The definition of social innovation still has to continue to evolve in South East Asia. Definitions and the field of action are in constant flux as the challenges of society change, so it makes it impossible to give one concise interpretation. (Hamalainen 2011) One may define social innovation, in the context of South East Asia, as new ways of reaching specific goals and they include, new organization forms, new regulations and new life styles that solve problems better than traditional practices do and that are worth imitating or institutionalizing.

Innovations in the social aspects have to change the direction of social development.

The most significant achievement and strength of an innovated society is its critical thinking education, small income disparities, little poverty, reciprocal altruism and the wide participation of citizens in political and economic life (some points from Sitra 2006).

In South East Asia the focus has been predominantly on export-oriented industrial growth and left behind environment and forest preservation, critical thinker development in universities, examining robust policy and planning for sustainable development with the use of new materials and functional technologies. In this part of the world, technological development and technological innovations are generally considered the pivotal point for socio-economic growth.

As yet South East Asia countries have no clear development strategy for social innovation. The area of social innovation will have to continue to evolve in order to improve the quality of life and the performance of society.

Their problems have to be tackled if they look forward to having stability and security.  The problems are: income raised and lose of competitiveness, entrepreneur and critical thinker shortage, environmentally degraded region, and more damage costs from natural disasters because of their poor infrastructures.

A part of entrepreneur shortage would be structural and now coexists with lack of motivation for cultivating critical thinker. Further issues are income disparities, huge poverty, healthcare and weak institutions and law enforcement and lack of attention to the importance of the infrastructure development.  

Innovation policy in the strong technical orientation is not enough, while the social dimension of innovation has been given less attention.

Thailand: Policy, Values, Floods

Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment for Development - Policy Analysis Research Group

The floods setback Thailand's economic growth this year and interrupt the comfort and normal lives of people. Thailand’s agricultures are ruined and it will cause a rise in the global rice market prices. The disaster has also forced up global prices of computer hard drives and disrupted global auto production after the flooding of industrial estates in the central provinces (Reuters Oct.2011)

Looking beyond the social pains which caused by the floods, from economic perspective, a sum of $13 billion budget deficit has been targeted for this fiscal year from Oct. to help with the recovery.

Some blames on Bangkok’s fast growth and its foundation on the flood-risked plain (Sawai Boonma, economist in Thailand) and others advocate the idea of misconduct in irrigation, water management and lack of dams and water storage capacity.

The role that dams play in the flood management is being debated among experts. However the fact is that eleven of Thailand's twenty six major dams currently contain water beyond their nominal capacity, and the rests are 90 to 99 percent "full". (Oct. 2011 ASIA NEWS)

The Chao Phraya River which snakes through Bangkok to the gulf of Thailand was recently flowing at a rate of 4,344 cubic meters per second.

The mighty Chao Phraya River on Oct 29th 2011 in the high tides

Given the above mentioned figures and add the increasing demand for electricity, water, lands and mitigating the risk of floods, the construction of new dams is inevitable. Despite Thailand has substantial untapped potential for large scale hydropower, its use is limited due to strong public opposition and green activists to large storage dams (IEA 2009)

The opposition claims that the large dams will displace the indigenous farmers in the river banks and destroy the forests and natural resources.

It is worth to note that city dwellers as well as farmers displaced since the floods began in July, claimed many lives and put many factories in trouble to pump out waters. They could face the same fate when the floods roll around again.  

It makes one thinks over:

SHOULD the Thailand government set its priority for constructing new dams and infrastructures simultaneously to address increasing demands of energy, and the flood mitigation efforts?

SHOULD oppositions think over their rationales and take different perspective and see the environmental issues from a broader angle?  

SHOULD the development plans be relaxed for the sake of environments or should we revise our consumption pattern?

Dears,………!!!