The tale of development, human and society

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

About 1500 BC, civilizations set about their social development process. They learnt how effectively carried out their affairs and produced surplus. This practice brought the civilizations prosperity. The development created a variety of social classes and caused population growth. More production was needed to satisfy the increase of demands. To keep their gods happy, the civilizations practiced more rituals and offered lavish sacrifices to gods. As the social class grew more diversified, elites should finance their worriers to maintain security and order within communities. 
The development produced more complexity and had worrying consequences. Animal sacrifices, population growth and expanding cities left fewer territories available for hunting and breeding herds and less timbers for fire. At that point in time, worriers had established themselves as a source of power. To seek and secure new resources, they marched into neighboring communities and beyond, harassed other societies, and occupied their food stocks and resources. The violence destroyed more resources
This aggression and ruthlessness disgusted NOBLE human beings who perceived the spirit of humanity. The nobles set up the new school of humanitarian thoughts to transform lifestyles. One of their principles was “natural resources are scarce and sacred, do not exploit them for external sacrifices in rituals” 
This approach introduced a new lifestyle that allowed humankind to exploit resources with respect and survive for long.
Today, we risk environmental catastrophe because we no longer see the earth as holey but regard it simply as a resource. 

Addressing crises

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

Today, there's no shortage of crises in the world, from economic crisis, security and nuclear proliferation, famine, food price high to climate change. All these troubles reveal the many shortcomings in the institutional structures of our modern world in national and international levels. All the old political systems that had been developed before the world war one, could not fit our modern globalization. Middle class has grown over the last decades and thus human’s requirements have also been shifted. Population and demands keep growing and our policymakers stuck into their old fashion ideology and keep regulating to downgrade the planet and humanity.
In some ways, the continuing failure to address the current issues in an appropriate fashion strains people’s fate. Moreover it puts question on the competence and wills of policymakers. Despaired people will lead to more crises. It seems scary and certainly wouldn't be pleasure in future and bring threat to humanity.
Institutional reform and stringent policies are essential.  Developing new thoughts and doctrines should set our top priorities. Policymakers should be more realistic and stop changing the planet in the same way that they have done.

The green paradox illusion

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

The green paradox initially suggested by Strand 2007; Sinn  2008; Hoel 2008. The green paradox advocators are anxious that oil consumption may increase as a result of the climate change fear and the use of low carbon energy sources. They argue, in the response to the low carbon energy use, oil markets may anticipate a future reduction in demand and increase current supply. Therefore green technologies implicitly increase the climate change damages.
We should take it with a grain of salt.
The missing point is that an increase in current fossil fuel supply leads to fuel extraction costs increase, thus it will offset the green paradox. It means that demand for fossil fuel declines as its price rises. It is an imperfect energy substitutes.
I strongly argue that competitive low carbon energy supply is the key element to the climate change mitigation. Giving energy security issue as another crucial challenge and the limitations of fossil fuel energy supply, the use of low carbon energy is inevitable.
To combat climate change, energy security issue, we should combine carbon pricing policy along with a R&D and innovation policy. My analysis shows the carbon pricing policy is insufficient to accelerate transition to low carbon energy use. 
Unavoidably with competitive low carbon energy supply, the demand and use of fossil fuel will drop, and is unlikely the green paradox occurs. 
Instead, let’s shift our focus on an effective R&D policy implementation to support the development of low-carbon energy technologies with private-sector engagement.

Hamlet vs. Policymakers

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

You know what I think. How policymakers address current international affairs. One day liberals came up with bank bail-out idea to save the economic crisis. They imagined the bank bailout would do miracle and a massive job creation, economic recovery would be promising. Now the new fashion is the government spending cut, no tax increase and austerity measure. Do policymakers know which one is right? Or they just do DECISION MAKING process based on Illusion.
New policymakers are stuck in their ideologies and utterly blind to realities. They are powerless to deal with the EU financial crisis, the US budget deficit and unemployment issues, Climate change, food price high, the news corp scandal and a few boarder disputes.
It seems that the policymakers are torn between wrong and wrong rather than right and wrong to decide.
It reminds me of Hamlet by W. Shakespeare (act 1, scene 4). Hamlet's inability to take decisive action ultimately results in tragedy.

So oft it chances in particular men

That for some vicious mole of nature in them -

As in their birth (wherein they are not guilty,

Since nature cannot choose his origin),

By the o'ergrowth of some complexion,

Oft breaking down the pales and forts of reason,

Or by some habit that too much o'er leavens

The form of plausive manners - that these men,

Carrying, I say, the stamp of one defect,

Being nature’s livery or fortune's star,

Their virtues else (be they as pure as grace,

As infinite as man may undergo)

Shall in the general censure take corruption

From that particular fault. The dram of evil

Hamlet's definition of the subjective "right" differs drastically from Claudius' definition. Hamlet may care for human worth, and hatred evil. It might be a tragedy of moral idealism as much as a tragedy of reflection (Bradley)
It will do policymakers and all of us good:

Oil Price after the world took the IEA's painkiller - high price ahead

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

Look graph below. It displays that the International Energy Agency, IEA's
painkiller did not work. On June 22nd after IEA announced its members'
commitment to a contingency release from the strategic petroleum reserves
caused the price of Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS), which is the type of oil
held in the Strategic petroleum reserves, to fall $7 in a week. The
price-fall was short lived and returned to its pre release level again last
week.

I discussed in my previous post, this move would have a temporary effect on
the oil market. Furthermore the US was the only country of twelve involved
in the IEA action to exclusively release crude for general sale to the
public. Now traders have the option of storing oil and selling it to
refiners later when prices rise. Even though storing oil on offshore
tankers, as a general practice by traders is expensive, some of the trading
companies have their own mass storage facilities to manage the costs in long
run.
Now price bounced back high and most likely higher in future (storage
effect) raise the question of why the IEA allowed traders to bid in the
auction process. The US energy department says its policy is not to
discriminate between different purchasers. Other governments involved in the
IEA release either selling their oil directly to industry, or only selling
refined retail products such as diesel or jet fuel, rather than crude (the
economist).
Does it not show the IEA's is inharmonic? It would have been better the IEA
performed a policy analysis before making such an immature decision.

What the oil dream can do - Cuba walks a change path

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

The United States geological survey, considers that the seas around Cuba hold 4.6 billion barrels of crude oil. This is very deep water reserve. In 2004, Repsol struck oil there, but found out the extraction would not be profitable. Any new discovery would take years to exploit. (the Economists)
Now the world demand for energy exponentially rises. Consequently energy security is going to be a pressing issue for states. Even the spots with small amount of fossil stock appeal state authorities
Cuba, with centralized planner and a communist system, is not exceptional. The need for foreign investment makes Cuba seeks investment from China, Brazil and India which have already offered a multi-billion-dollar credit line. Cuba’s government is trying to find a way-out from its existing political structure, to give ways for more efficient private engagement in the country’s economic affair. In recent movements, the government cut food imports by leasing land to private farmers. The government granted 221,000 licenses for small businesses (The Times) since October last year, to make the island more attractive for foreigners to visit and Cuban-Americans to retire.
But Cuba’s main hope of economic independence is OIL. A $750m drilling rig is underway to live up this hope. It built in China with no American parts to avoid falling foul of the United States’ economic embargo against the island. Cuba will celebrate the rig presence in its waters by the end of the year. Spain’s Repsol will drill an exploratory well the early 2012.
If the oil hope comes true and then Cuba’s reforms take momentum, Cuba may be a rather different place.

A hidden threat – Population Growth, A need for new political ideology?

By Shahab Sabahi

Energy and Environment - Policy analysis research group

I recall, when I was at my ten, my father’s simple argument why communism would suit China. Without any offence, he believed that a central planner would evenly distribute food to Chinese for the sake of the rest of the world to get enough food. 
Thirty years on, China exercises its version of capitalism and stands as the world’s second largest economy with its increasing number of middle class, who will steadily demand more food and energy.
China is not any longer the only populated spot. On World Population Day, July 11, the United Nations announced an upcoming event global population hitting the seven billion mark by late October 2011. Another projection suggests the second milestone will be in 2025 when the global population will reach eight billion.
A new study “Africa's Demographic Multiplication” conducted by the Washington-based Globalist Research Center, points out that Africa's population has more than tripled during the second half of the 20th century, growing from 230 million to 811 million. Africa has become more populous than Europe.
Only Nigeria, Africa's most populous country at 158 million, is expected to grow to 730 million by century's end, making it larger than Europe's projected population of 675 million. Nigeria is currently the only African country with a population exceeding 100 million. But 10 other countries in the African continent are expected to join that club before the close of the century: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Niger, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.
Cost-benefit analysis (again economic dimension) by experts reads that in many countries, every dollar spent on family planning saves at least four dollars that would otherwise be spent treating complications arising from unplanned pregnancies. Despite the low cost and many benefits of planning, as analysis shows, world leaders, particularly emerging countries as pledged before, have not placed a priority on its funding. WHY?
Perhaps world leaders see it as an opportunity and a new market for selling products and hunting cheap workforce. It may hold in medium term however it is obvious that the world’s scarce resources will be a pressing issue in foreseeable future.