Climate change and Regional conflicts may bring benefits

By: Shahab Sabahi
        Energy and Environment – policy analysis research group
The book, “Exceptional People” by Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron and Meera Balarajan, describes; one of few things that will affect our futures will be the migration phenomena. The book gives a guide to the costs and benefits of modern migration.
In this brief, I shall look into the book’s analysis through climate change and regional conflict lens. From this viewpoint, neither climate change nor regional conflicts are accounted threat; they could even benefit the globe!! Is it possible?
Climate change and regional conflicts are seen, at least by majority, among the big threats that will harm our societies for years to come. But a question poses “Would all societies be losers? “. According the book’s prediction, climate change will create 200 million refugees by mid-century. Global warming may cause more frequent floods, but most flood victims go home when the waters subsidize. The next big wave of migration will come from Africa. Today, most Africans are too poor to move far. A typical African peasant cannot afford the boat fare to Europe. But as the continent becomes less poor, more and more Africans will acquire the means to migrate.
The flip side may be bright. The book predicts a future of labour shortages in rich countries which only migration can solve. As Europe and America age, they will need more young and energetic nurses, care assistants, housekeepers and cleaners. Robots cannot do everything, even in Japan. The demand for highly skilled workers will grow too, and countries will start to compete more fiercely for mobile talent. Migration will define our future. Migration is the most effective tool yet devised for reducing global poverty. If rich countries were to admit enough migrants from poor countries to expand their own labour forces by a mere 3%, the world would be richer, according to one estimate, by $356 billion a year. Completely opening borders would add an astonishing $39 trillion over 25 years to the global economy. That is more than 500 times the amount the rich world spends on foreign aid each year. Poor countries may suffer when they lose their best brains to the West But the prospect of migrating spurs people in poor countries to acquire marketable skills. Some spend several years abroad but then return home with new skills, new contacts and a pot of savings to invest.
Given the book’s arguments and analysis, the benefits of “climate change and regional conflicts” may outweigh their costs. In general, it may be interpreted that these threats will benefit both rich and poor.
So, climate change and regional conflicts will cause an increase of migration flux to rich countries. The migration flux boosts the economies of both rich and poor countries. Eventually all societies benefit these threats.
However this is not easy to conclude that a system includes the human migration and climate change impact may yield benefits to the whole world. We should take into account
1.      the complexity and  dynamic of social system and its context
2.      the demographic change impact